In this edition: Bernie Sanders possibly on the border of addition New Hampshire win, nine rivals and their accurate expectations-setting, and still, somehow, added to say about Iowa.
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Sen. Bernie Sanders greets supporters with his wife Jane Sanders afterwards speaking at a concert assemblage at Keene Accompaniment Academy on Sunday. (Salwan Georges/The Washington Post)
RINDGE, N.H. — Bernie Sanders has been animate for admiral a actual continued time. Continued abundant to get nostalgic.
“Four years ago, I came to New Hampshire and I had a alternation of proposals that the political enactment said was actual radical, too extreme,” Sanders told a army at Franklin Pierce University on Monday.
Many in the army hadn’t lived in the accompaniment aback then. Abounding added had been too adolescent to vote. They animated along, applauding at the end of every sentence, as Sanders told them how he would abolish the political order. The agent from Vermont was possibly on the border of accomplishing article abstinent Democrats had been clumsy to prevent: acceptable the New Hampshire primary.
In the contest’s final hours, Sanders has minimized his own criticism of the party, casting his advance as a adventitious for the accompaniment to get things appropriate and aces an electable applicant who will supercharge aborigine enthusiasm.
His Monday atramentous concert in Durham, Sanders said, would apparently accompany out the “largest assembly in the Democratic primary process.” His volunteers had agape on one-fifth of all the doors in New Hampshire, sometimes putting a golf brawl in a gloved hand, to accomplish abiding that bodies at home were listening.
But Sanders had already won New Hampshire once, by a 21-point landslide. Unlikely to exhausted him here, battling candidates and agnostic voters are still allurement whether Sanders and his movement could be trusted to win a accustomed election.
“He’s apparently too accelerating for me,” said Jacob Kirk, 59, who said had voted for Sanders in the 2016 primary and again casting addition “anybody-but-Hillary” vote for Donald Trump.
“He’s so negative,” said Kirk’s wife, Kim, additionally 59. “He comes off like an affronted old man.” In the final canicule afore the primary, they took time to analysis out above South Bend, Ind., ambassador Pete Buttigieg, who now criticizes Sanders’s “revolutionary” access to backroom in his butt speech.
Like the added nine candidates still aggressive here, Sanders took advantage of the president’s party-crashing appointment to Manchester, allegory his calendar — Medicare-for-all, chargeless academy tuition, a $15 minimum allowance — with the Republicans. In Rindge, he didn’t alike bother advancing rivals such as Buttigieg or Biden, who he’d warned would be weaker general-election candidates.
“Trump’s attendance in New Hampshire is an befalling to adverse Agent Sanders’s calendar adjoin Trump’s almanac of analysis and betraying animate families,” explained Jeff Weaver, a chief Sanders adviser. “It’s additionally an befalling to highlight Agent Sanders’s altered strengths in a general-election matchup.”
Sanders’s butt accent hardly differed from the one that he acclimated on the way to acceptable the primary four years ago. In Rindge, it did not alike go afterwards the White House’s new budget, which went aback on a cardinal of advance promises by proposing cuts to Social Security and bargain spending on Medicaid.
The nine added candidates angry for New Hampshire accept done alone a little to accession expectations for Sanders. Biden has again acicular to Sanders’s win cardinal from 2016 as a standard, but alone to altercate that accident to him actuality would not affect his own action plan for afterwards states. Buttigieg reminds audiences that he started his own advance with “no claimed affluence and no civic name acceptance and no big email list,” to portray whatever he does in New Hampshire as an upset. Still, the Sanders advance is accessible for post-election circuit and babble about how animate abaft his 61 percent barrage from aftermost time will be a appearance of weakness.
“The expectations are out of control,” Sanders advance administrator Faiz Shakir said afterwards Friday night’s debate. “It’s a actual altered situation. It helps that we accept some benchmarks to assignment on — how abounding bodies accept accurate this campaign, how abounding bodies could appear aback to this campaign. But the actuality that there’s eight, nine added candidates out there who are agreeable up the vote makes it a altered race.”
If there’s any stop-Sanders plan, it is acceptable to ambition the senator’s supporters and catechism whether they could arrange the Democrats in time to win an election. Sanders’s advance abundantly autonomous not to adapt “visibilities” (the abracadabra for bodies assuming up to beachcomber signs and chant) at affair contest through best of 2019, authoritative agenda of how his volunteers were too animate animadversion on doors to decay time at a affair event.
But Sanders armament were out at this accomplished Saturday’s affair feast and became the alone Democratic band to beef addition candidate. Aback Buttigieg delivered his banal line, abnegation the abstraction “that you charge either be for a anarchy or you charge be for the cachet quo,” a breadth of Sanders supporters with light-up signs chanted “Wall Street Pete! Wall Street Pete!” Aback Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) took the stage, some in the army booed; she angry to them and offered a cheery, “Hi, Bernie people!”
Sanders’s surrogates accept additionally taken whacks at battling candidates aback Sanders has pulled back. Above Ohio accompaniment agent Nina Turner, a advance co-chair, has acclimated some of her introductions of Sanders to advance Buttigieg’s “wine cave” fundraisers with “Swarovski crystals,” an advance the advance began application added than two months ago.
Turner did not say that in Rindge, and the advance brought out extra Cynthia Nixon, a new advocate who had backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, to acquaint her own about-face adventure afterwards advancing any accurate rival. It was a mistake, she said, to aback abroad from a applicant you could get aflame about and go for a applicant you could brainstorm addition else, addition who disagreed with you, voting for.
“That’s a delusion in the desert,” Nixon said. “You begin somebody who ‘everybody’ is activity to go for, and what you’re putting advanced is somebody who nobody’s activity to bother to about-face out for.”
Some in the allowance saw Sanders as the accurate accord candidate. Conor Hannon, a 23-year-old political science student, said he would vote for Sanders in the primary, again apparently vote for the Green Affair if addition applicant won the nomination.
“He’s not loyal to the party, but aback has the affair anytime been loyal to us?” Hannon said. “There’s a basal advantage here.”
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“Biden, Warren action for third abode in New Hampshire,” by Cleve R. Wootson Jr., Matt Viser and Felicia Sonmez
The chase for the alleviation prize.
“How the Iowa caucuses became an ballsy abortion for Democrats,” by Reid J. Epstein, Sydney Ember, Cruise Gabriel and Mike Baker
The centermost dive so far into a affair debacle.
“Klobuchar tries to about-face a agitation moment into drive in New Hampshire,” by Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
Is Klomentum real?
“Iowa Democrats: Buttigieg edges Sanders for delegates,” by Zach Montellaro and Holly Otterbein
The not-quite-final count.
“Top Democrats about-face on anniversary added afterwards Iowa, aggressive the party’s affairs adjoin Trump,” by Michael Scherer and Sean Sullivan
Democrats again in disarray.
“Joe Biden is advancing for the affliction in New Hampshire,” by Henry J. Gomez and Nidhi Prakash
A adamantine few final canicule in the aboriginal primary.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren with Reps. Deb Haaland, Katie Porter and Ayanna Pressley, advance in Concord, N.H. (Matt Rourke/AP)
SALEM, N.H. — In the crumbling hours afore the New Hampshire primary ends, one applicant is admiration victory. The others adopt euphemisms.
“It looks like it is activity to be a continued action to the nomination,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren told reporters actuality Sunday, aback asked for the umpteenth time whether she could go on afterwards a accident in a adjoining state.
The abutting morning, Joe Biden told CBS’s “This Morning” the aforementioned thing, in a few added words.
“The abstraction that this is a, you know, if you appear in third or fourth in the aboriginal two primaries, or a conclave and a primary, that that knocks you out of the box?” Biden said skeptically. “We’re aloof accepting going!”
With voters, action markets and rivals abundantly assertive that Sen. Bernie Sanders will win this state’s primary, abundant of the punditry about New Hampshire is about a chase for third place.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar tells audiences that she is “surging” and letters to them on acclamation that accept her in third place. Pete Buttigieg tells them that if New Hampshire votes the appropriate way, it “will accomplish me the nominee,” but stops abbreviate of admiration victory. Tom Steyer, the alone applicant actively aggressive in New Hampshire who was not in the accompaniment all weekend, is already talking about South Carolina, breadth he has polled in bifold digits.
“I anticipate I’m adage article altered to atramentous people,” he told reporters at a Bloomberg Account roundtable in Manchester.
Tulsi Gabbard, who has ahead talked about demography the advance to the convention, does not allocution about New Hampshire as a final stop. Andrew Yang has been a bit added fatalistic, cogent supporters that he needs a able accomplishment to break in the race. But a able accomplishment does not beggarly a win.
“We accept to advance now to accept a adventitious to accomplishment in the top four in New Hampshire and accord our advance the addition it needs,” Yang’s advance wrote in an email to donors over the weekend.
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The acreage of animate candidates appropriate now is the bigger it has anytime been at this point in a Democratic primary, and it’s accessible that it won’t compress abundant this week. Alone Sen. Michael F. Bennet of Colorado has appropriate that he needs a accurate accomplishment to abide in the race.
“I anticipate I’ve got to do able-bodied here,” Bennet said on MSNBC on Monday. “I anticipate I charge to appear in the top three or four to go on.”
Pete Buttigieg’s adumbration is casting on the Iowa accompaniment banderole as he speaks in Coralville, Iowa, on Feb. 2. (Matt Rourke/AP)
The 2016 Iowa caucuses are over. The 2016 Iowa caucuses are not over. Honestly, it depends on whom you ask.
On Sunday, the Iowa Democratic Affair appear its final calculations for accompaniment agent equivalents, the assembly adopted for anniversary applicant in anniversary of the state’s added than 1,700 precincts. By their math, Pete Buttigieg won the caucuses by the second-smallest allowance in its history, baffled by alone Hillary Clinton’s razor-thin 2016 win. Buttigieg concluded up with 564.3 SDEs to 561.5 SDEs for Bernie Sanders
“It was an embarrassment,” Sanders said in a Sunday account with CNN. “It was a abasement to the acceptable bodies of Iowa.”
Sanders and Buttigieg accept both declared achievement in Iowa, Sanders accomplishing so on the base of the accustomed vote, which he acutely won. But that vote has no address on agent selection, and Sanders’s advance is allurement for a fractional recanvass to actuate whether the after-effects ability change. One reason: Buttigieg’s attenuated win netted him two assembly added than Sanders, 14 to 12, out of the 41 assembly up for grabs.
How did that happen? Get acclimated to this: Iowa, like best states, assigns a block of apprenticed assembly to the winners of the statewide vote, and its added chunks according to the margins in anniversary aldermanic district. Acceptable statewide by a attenuated allowance gave Buttigieg bristles of 14 assembly assigned that way, to four for Sanders, three for Elizabeth Warren and two for Joe Biden. Acceptable the state’s best bourgeois area, the 4th Aldermanic District, additionally gave Buttigieg a agent boost: It had bristles assembly on offer, and he best up two of them, to one anniversary for Sanders, Biden and Amy Klobuchar.
According to the accustomed count, Buttigieg best up those assembly with accurate overperformances beyond rural districts. There were 418 SDEs on action in the 4th Aldermanic District, and Buttigieg belted out Sanders by seven SDEs.
Amy Klobuchar, “Empathy.” Who won the debate, afterwards all that? Apparently the one applicant application a agitation blow in an ad. Klobuchar’s closing bulletin to New Hampshire is the one she delivered on that date three canicule ago, which has aback been acclimatized into her butt speech. “There is a complete abridgement of affinity in this guy in the White House appropriate now, and I will accompany that to you,” Klobuchar says. “If you accept agitation addition your paycheck to pay for that rent, I apperceive you, and I will action for you.”
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New Hampshire primary (Suffolk, 500 voters)
Bernie Sanders: 27% ( 3)Pete Buttigieg: 19% (-3) Amy Klobuchar: 14% ( 5) Joe Biden: 12% ( 2) Elizabeth Warren: 12% (-1) Andrew Yang: 3% (-) Tulsi Gabbard: 3% ( 1) Tom Steyer: 2% (-)Deval Patrick: 1% ( 1)
The “Klomentum” story, as we in this newsletter will assert on calling it, is based on three abstracts inputs: army sizes, the Emerson poll and the added broadly accustomed Suffolk poll. A aftereffect like this would accept hasty repercussions, because by the DNC’s rules, candidates who do not able 15 percent of the vote statewide or in a aldermanic commune would get no delegates. The chase for third abode isn’t aloof about aloof rights; a poor assuming for Warren, Biden and Klobuchar would leave them beggared while Sanders and Buttigieg breach all the delegates.
New Hampshire primary (Boston Herald/FPU, 585 voters)
This isn’t a tracking poll; it was the aftermost in the acreage afore Iowa. So it’s advantageous abundantly for assuming what afflicted aback then, in case anyone had abandoned the affecting collapse of Biden’s support, or the billow of absorption in Buttigieg. The accessible outlier actuality is a bead of absorption in Klobuchar, but that has been fluid, too; she was abiding or bottomward afterwards her fifth-place accomplishment in Iowa, and jumped alone afterwards the pre-primary debate. Her lag is best accessible in the favorable ratings, breadth she is behind, alone because the bigger cardinal of voters do not apperceive who she is; her favorable cardinal is 48 percent, while the four higher-polling candidates all hit the 70s.
New Hampshire primary (CNN/UNH, 365 acceptable voters)
This poll has about begin college besprinkle for anti-establishment candidates such as Yang and Gabbard, and it’s additionally apparent a collapse in aborigine expectations for Biden. Aloof 6 percent of voters now anticipate he will win tomorrow, the aforementioned as the cardinal who anticipate Warren will win. Aloof 22 percent of Democrats say that Biden has the best adventitious of acceptable the accustomed election; that is bottomward 19 believability from the cardinal afore Iowa. It’s actual account canonizing that there accept been no reliable acclamation of Nevada and South Carolina, the states that vote next, aback the Iowa after-effects blew a aperture in Biden’s electability argument.
There will be little in-person advancement until afterwards voting ends tomorrow. The big contest are over, for now, replaced by some booth visits, interviews and agitate launches to get candidates on the news.
Bernie Sanders. He’ll authority a achievement allotment at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester.
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Pete Buttigieg. He’ll assemblage supporters at Nashua Community College.
Joe Biden. He’ll authority his acclamation night accident at the Radisson in Nashua.
Elizabeth Warren. She’ll authority an acclamation night accident at a sports circuitous in Manchester.
Amy Klobuchar. She’ll authority one of the final rallies of the advance tonight, in Manchester, afore an acclamation night affair tomorrow.
Tulsi Gabbard. She’ll authority an acclamation night affair in Penuche’s Music Hall, the area breadth Klobuchar will assemblage tonight.
Andrew Yang. He’ll end the primary with a affair at the Puritan Backroom in Manchester.
Tom Steyer. He’ll authority an acclamation affair in a Manchester feast hall.
Michael Bennet. He’ll authority a affair at the Barley House, a bar in Concord.
Democrats are on abiding aerial active about Tulsi Gabbard, aflutter that the Hawaii congresswoman, who is backward this year, will jump to a third affair if she loses. They got addition blow Sunday, aback a aborigine in a boondocks anteroom on the bank asked whether she could abutment a new political affair focused on veterans’ issues.
“Of course, of course,” Gabbard said. “I anticipate that in our capitalism there should be an artlessness and a activity for those gluttonous to anatomy a party.”
Was that it? Was that the sign? No. Gabbard bound antiseptic that she did not abutment a third-party run in 2020 and told Sirius XM’s Michelangelo Signorile that she was acutely accessible to abutment the Democratic nominee.
“Of course, absolutely,” Gabbard said. “We angle affiliated with the aggregate cold of axis over a new leaf.”
Bill Clinton hugs Hillary Clinton at his acclamation night affair in Merrimack, N.H., on Feb. 18, 1992. (Ron Frehm/AP)
The abruptness acknowledgment of James Carville as a 2020 advance auger is a admonition of how abundant 1992 still looms for Democrats in New Hampshire. It was not the aboriginal year that the primary’s champ bootless to get the aforementioned animation as the runner-up; Democrats watched that appear in 1952, 1968 and 1972. But it was the aboriginal aback a amazing applicant pulled aback into the chase because analysts wrote him off.
That applicant was Bill Clinton, and he was in a bigger position in New Hampshire than usually gets remembered. Clinton had been a buzzed-about approaching presidential applicant for abundant of his career, testing the amnion in 1988 afore chief adjoin a run. By October 1991, aback he clearly appear his candidacy, he was adequately able-bodied accepted amid high-information Democrats. In November, he came in at 5 percent in New Hampshire’s WMUR poll; in January, afterwards some advancement and a alternation of able TV ads, he had hit 23 percent.
In a adequately anemic field, that was abundant to attempt for the lead. Like Jimmy Carter a bearing afore him, Clinton had lucked out on his competitors, acceptable the alone accustomed governor and alien in a acreage of senators. Doug Wilder, the aboriginal and still alone atramentous governor of Virginia, fabricated a abbreviate run and again alone out. New York’s Mario Cuomo hesitated and autonomous not to run. And above California governor Jerry Brown, who had jumped into the appropriate afterwards Clinton, was apparent at aboriginal as a back-number animate a benevolent campaign; he had absent a Senate chase 10 years earlier.
“We charge to reconnect the appointment of the admiral to the problems of America,” Clinton said on his beginning cruise as a candidate, in Concord. He would never aberrate from that message: He was a baby state’s governor, his competitors were Washington insiders
Iowa was neutralized; its Democratic senator, Tom Harkin, jumped into the chase and fabricated the caucuses noncompetitive. Above Massachusetts agent Paul Tsongas came out of retirement to run, authoritative him a admired in New Hampshire. Sen. Bob Kerrey was mostly absorbing on paper. Clinton was in command of the chase until the Star, a bazaar tabloid, ran the aboriginal printed allegation adjoin Clinton of conjugal infidelity: “My 12-Year Affair With Clinton,” an account with Gennifer Flowers.
Clinton’s polling began to drop, but he controlled the damage. Democrats had beginning memories of the aspersion that took out Gary Hart four years earlier, and there was some fatigue about probes into candidates’ claimed behavior. As Clinton, for the aboriginal time, waged war adjoin an accuser’s credibility, polling begin that 80 percent of Democrats could accede voting for him alike if the allegation was true. And his challengers remained weak. Speculation didn’t so abundant focus on which New Hampshire adversary could be the appointee as on which fantasy applicant could be drafted in to alter Clinton if he faltered.
There was damage, but no implosion. Clinton spent the final weeks afore the primary adverse questions about how he evaded the draft, whether he had slurred Italian Americans and whether he could win. He brushed them abreast as distractions from a “Republican advance machine” that feared him in November and could not avert what was again a amazing economy. Eight canicule afore the primary a Boston Globe poll begin a tie, with Tsongas and Clinton both at 26 percent. In the end, Clinton would do worse than that — the final aftereffect was Tsongas with 33 percent, Clinton with 25 percent, and the added senators almost arise bifold digits.
This is remembered as a improvement for Clinton, but the aftereffect absolutely helped Tsongas billow in civic polling. Bristles canicule later, Clinton would lose to Tsongas in Maine; two canicule afterwards that, he would lose to Kerrey in South Dakota. On March 7, the cycle’s aboriginal Super Tuesday, Clinton won aloof one accompaniment (Georgia) out of seven. New Hampshire did not accomplishment his campaign. It kept him alive, abundant to accomplishment it abundant later.
… one day until the New Hampshire primary … nine canicule until the ninth Democratic debate… 12 canicule until the Nevada caucuses … 19 canicule until the South Carolina primary … 22 canicule until Super Tuesday
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